Weather Markets Edge Desk

com.predictionmarketspicks/weatherVersion 1.2.0

Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.

Status

Responds606 msNov 14, 2026, 14:11 UTCAnswered our handshake without sign-in.

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Last checked: Nov 14, 2026, 14:11 UTC
Latency: 606 ms
Remotes responding: 1 of 1
Sign-in: No sign-in
Hosting: Hosted outside the EU (detected)
Registry data as of: Nov 14, 2026, 22:14 UTC

Data from the official MCP Registry, checked by run.zero. How we check

Connect

Streamable HTTP

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registryResponds606 msNov 14, 2026, 14:11 UTC

No sign-in

Claude Code

claude mcp add --transport http weather 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry'

Claude Desktop and claude.ai

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Settings > Connectors > Add custom connector
Name: weather
Remote MCP server URL: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry

Cursor

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "weather": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

VS Code

code --add-mcp '{"name":"weather","type":"http","url":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"}'

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Tools

8 tools

Tools of Weather Markets Edge Desk
	Description		Read-only	Idempotent	Open world
`base_rate_gap`Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.	Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.	No	Yes	Not declared	No
`bayes_update`Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence \| true) and P(evidence \| false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".	Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence \| true) and P(evidence \| false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".	No	Yes	Not declared	No
`calculate_ev`Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read, with that venue's fee.	Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read, with that venue's fee.	No	Yes	Not declared	No
`convert_probability`Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".	No	Yes	Not declared	No
`edge_alerts`Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.	Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.	No	Yes	Not declared	Yes
`kelly_size`Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".	Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".	No	Yes	Not declared	No
`weather_board`Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.	Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.	No	Yes	Not declared	Yes
`weather_settlement`Use for "what will the Kalshi NYC high settle at", "has LAX already hit 75" and "which Polymarket temperature bucket is winning". Per station: the running max under each venue's settlement rule (Kalshi and Polymarket US on the NWS Climate Report; Polymarket.com on routine METARs), the observation that set it, the next report countdown, the strikes already decided and the official high once it lands. Pass station ("la", "KLAX"). Settlement data only, no picks.	Use for "what will the Kalshi NYC high settle at", "has LAX already hit 75" and "which Polymarket temperature bucket is winning". Per station: the running max under each venue's settlement rule (Kalshi and Polymarket US on the NWS Climate Report; Polymarket.com on routine METARs), the observation that set it, the next report countdown, the strikes already decided and the official high once it lands. Pass station ("la", "KLAX"). Settlement data only, no picks.	No	Yes	Not declared	Yes

Details

Registry status: Active
Published: Oct 13, 2026
Updated: Oct 13, 2026
Website: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/weather⁠ (opens in a new tab)
Repository: https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp⁠ (opens in a new tab)
Categories (suggested): Data and analyticsSuggested categories are assigned automatically from the registry text and may be wrong. Verified operators can correct them.
GDPR: Not declared

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